Whatever else they may have been, the pool stages of Rugby World Cup
2011 certainly haven’t been dull. With the competition about to enter its
knockout phase, it’s an appropriate moment to look back at what we’ve enjoyed,
and indeed endured, so far, and to consider what might be coming next.
Let’s kick off (yes I went there) with the pool stages. First of all, I’d
like to say how refreshing it’s been to see some genuine upsets in this
tournament. One oft-repeated criticism of rugby is that, in the vast majority
of cases, results go according to form, so that the sport continues to be
dominated by the same small group of superpowers to the exclusion of everyone
else. And looking at the list of quarter-finalists this year, you might think
that wasn’t too far wrong. But there’s plenty of evidence that the so-called “second
tier” nations are often more than capable of competing with the big boys. The
final few days of pool matches saw South Africa pushed all the way by Samoa,
before a determined Tongan side overcome a woeful French outfit on Saturday.
The old elite may still be in charge for now, but there’s plenty of evidence
that the rest of the world is catching up fast.
Which brings me to perhaps the most controversial element of this
competition: the scheduling. Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu’s ill-judged rant aside, many
will feel that the smaller nations have a legitimate gripe against a system
that’s landed many of them with a three-day turnaround while their bigger opponents
get a week off to recover. But on the other hand, I’ve yet to hear anyone come
up with a convincing alternative. Giving everyone a week off would mean the
tournament would drag on interminably, and no-one wants that. In the absence of
an agreed-on solution, this is a debate that looks set to run and run.
But enough about what’s already happened – let’s look ahead to this
weekend’s action. The quarter-finals get underway with a clash of two in-form
teams as Ireland take on Wales. This is a tough one to call. Wales looked
strong coming into the tournament and have built on that promise with some
impressive displays. They’re a youthful team but one that’s playing with impressive
maturity, as personified by their outstanding captain Sam Warburton. Ireland,
meanwhile, lost all four of their warm-up games before coming from nowhere to
stun Australia 15-6. Since then they haven’t looked back, and a comprehensive 36-6
win over Italy last time out showed just how far they’ve come. The battle of
the back rows is going to be key, with Dan Lydiate, Warburton and Toby Faletau
squaring up to Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip. At fly half it’s
youth versus experience, with the impressive Rhys Priestland lining up against
seasoned campaigner Ronan O’Gara. It has all the makings of a Celtic classic. I’m
going with Ireland to win, just because experience often tells in knockout
rugby. But it’ll be close, and expect plenty of fireworks along the way.
At the other end of the spectrum, we find two teams that have really
struggled for form. On the one hand, England’s discipline has caused them plenty
of problems both on and off the field. On the other, France appear to have
imploded in spectacular fashion, epitomised by their 19-14 defeat to Tonga last
week. But then the French team’s weakness can also be their greatest strength:
unpredictability. Never underestimate the potential of the French to unite
around their common hatred of the English. And if everything finally starts to
flow for Les Bleus, then it could spell trouble for Martin Johnson’s men. But
then again, England have World Cup history on their side. In knockout matches,
they’re generally pretty good at beating the French. They’ve also shown in
recent weeks that, it nothing else, they know how to grind out a result.
Discipline will be an important issue, as will goal-kicking (whoever gets
handed the responsibility). England to win for me – just don’t expect it to be
pretty.
Sunday sees the southern hemisphere take centre stage. First up it’s
Australia against South Africa, a match-up that before the tournament would
have had us drooling in anticipation (and probably confidently predicting a win
for the Wallabies). How things change. For me, Australia’s performance so far
has been one of the biggest disappointments of this competition. A young
Wallabies side has been made to look naïve and inexperienced at times, notably
against Ireland where they contributed significantly to their own downfall. True,
they haven’t been helped by injuries, but then what team hasn’t had that problem?
At the moment Australia look like a team searching for direction, and if they want
to play the kind of creative, attacking rugby we saw in the Tri-Nations then
they need to find it soon. Meanwhile, the Springboks came through the Group of
Death fairly unscathed despite being run close by both Wales and Samoa. The
major exception to this, of course, is the loss of the influential Frans Steyn.
The Springboks looked vulnerable against both Wales and Samoa, and in both
cases it was their defence that helped them hold on for the win. There’s a good
reason why they’ve conceded the fewest points of any team ever in the pool
stages. And it’s this that I think will see them through to the semi-finals,
barring a return to pre-tournament brilliance from the men in gold.
And so we come at last to the hosts themselves. The All Blacks go into
Sunday’s game against Argentina still reeling from the loss of playmaker and
talisman Dan Carter. Without him, they still have a formidable group of
players, and to write them off now would be foolish indeed. But people will
look at them now and think that they look just a little bit more beatable. And
that must be what the Pumas are pinning their hopes on. Contepomi and co have
done well to make it this far after their own star fly half Juan Martin
Hernandez was ruled out of the tournament through injury. They’ll certainly
give the All Blacks a physical battle, but it seems unlikely they’ll be able to
compete in the backs. New Zealand have an embarrassment of riches when it comes
to powerful, skilful centres and wingers, not to mention having the luxury of
choosing between Mills Muliaina and Israel Dagg at full back. Argentina will
put in a valiant performance, but I expect it to be pretty comfortable for the
hosts.
But of course, only the next 48 hours will show who’s called it right
and wrong this time around. There’s been plenty of tension, nerves, frustration
and joy so far, and there’s plenty more to come yet. I’ll be watching it all,
and I hope you’ll join me. Time to set the alarm.
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