It’s that time again. Four years on from the Springboks’ triumph in
Paris, the eyes of the rugby world are turning to New Zealand, where the
seventh Rugby World Cup kicks off in just over twelve hours’ time.
There has been a lot of talk in the buildup to this tournament. Will
the All Blacks be able to shake off their World Cup jinx and triumph on home
soil for the second time? Will a maturing Australia side have the fire power to
secure a record third win? And how will the Home Nations fare, particularly
given the injuries that have blighted their preparations?
Let’s start with the hosts and perennial favourites. Since their
triumph in the inaugural competition in 1987, the All Blacks have had an
unfortunate reputation for producing great performances everywhere except where
it really counts. But this time, we’re told, it’s going to be different.
Certainly the signs are good. There’s been more consistency in selection than
in the past, and the star turns have kept (relatively) healthy and kept performing.
But therein lies a potential problem – what happens when one of their stars,
say Richie McCaw or Dan Carter, gets injured? In some positions, particularly
the crucial fly half spot, they look dangerously short of cover, with Colin
Slade putting in a less than impressive performance in their Tri-Nations clash
against South Africa. Will this lack of depth in key positions come back to
haunt the hosts as the tournament enters the knockout phase?
If the All Blacks do come unstuck, then Australia are many people’s
favourites to lift the trophy. It’s not hard to see why: a Wallabies side that
always had plenty of flair has developed in the last twelve months into a unit
formidable in both defence and attack. Their forwards can no longer be bullied
into submission, while their backs have been firing on all cylinders thanks in
large part to a seemingly telepathic understanding between their half-backs.
They will have been boosted by their first Tri Nations title in ten years,
sealed with a dramatic 25-20 win over New Zealand. Some will believe the
Wallabies are still too inexperienced and their forwards still too lightweight
to go all the way, but not many would be foolish enough to write them off.
And what of the defending champions? South Africa’s style of play may
not endear them to many people, but there’s no denying that it’s often proved effective.
Most recently it earned them an 18-5 win over New Zealand. While many
(including me) will have found long periods of the match less than enthralling,
there’s no denying the magnitude of their achievement. Questions remain,
though, over the form of the current crop of Springboks. In particular, you
could be forgiven for wondering whether an ageing squad has the stamina to make
it through six weeks of gruelling competition. There’s also the uncertainty
surrounding John Smit, who has retained the captaincy despite potentially
losing his starting place to Bismarck du Plessis. The Springboks will provide
plenty of bruising, full-blooded action, and in Morne Steyn they have someone
who can keep the scoreboard ticking over. No team has ever successfully
defended a world title, though, and it’s still doubtful whether they have
enough dimensions to their play to become the first.
Of the Home Nations, England look best-placed to top their group, although
they’ll have to overcome first Argentina and then neighbours and fierce rivals
Scotland. England have had their fair share of injury problems, with captain
Lewis Moody and wing Mark Cueto missing their opening match. Their run-in has
been patchy too, with a narrow victory over Wales at Twickenham followed by
defeat in Cardiff a week later. They finished on a high, though, with their
first away win over Ireland since 2003. England’s midfield has come in for a
lot of criticism in recent times, much of it justified, but the new centre
pairing of Mike Tindall and Manu Tuilagi looked promising on its first outing.
England have always been strong in the forwards and difficult to break down; the
question is whether they can show the creativity and clinical execution
required to get past the top teams.
Scotland, England’s companions in Pool B, have also had some
encouraging recent results. They may only have had two warm-up games to prepare
for the tournament, but victories over Ireland and Italy will give them a lot
of belief that they can maintain their record of reaching the quarter-finals in
every World Cup. To do so they’ll have to overcome either England or Argentina,
but on recent form that shouldn’t be beyond them. After that, anything could
happen, but they look to lack the attacking firepower to repeat their
semi-final appearance of 1991. Meanwhile Wales have shown they have the
potential to cause anyone problems, but only if all their key players can find
their form at the same time, and if they can find the consistency to navigate
the so-called Group of Death. And Ireland have endured a torrid time of late,
losing all four of their warm-up games and having two thirds of their
first-choice back row sidelined through injury. Some promising signs, then, for
the Home Nations, but few will be predicting a Northern Hemisphere champion in
2011.
So, the pundits, the predictors and the ex-pros have all had their say,
and everyone’s got their opinion on how the tournament’s going to pan out. The
only thing we know for certain is that, at 0930 BST tomorrow, the talking
stops, and the rugby finally begins.
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