Rugby World Cup Final Weekend Preview

After six weeks, 46 matches and what feels like hundreds of stupidly early mornings, the Rugby World Cup final is almost here. I say almost, because before we reach that point there’s the third-place play-off to turn our attention to. The quality of the rugby may have been up and down, but the tournament certainly hasn’t been short of drama. And this weekend should be no different.

First, let’s consider tomorrow’s third-place play-off. There are a couple of things that mystify me about this fixture. The first is, to be honest, why we bother having one in the first place. It seems a bit illogical for club sides to be deprived of their best players for an extra week, and for those players to put their bodies at risk, for what’s essentially a pretty meaningless game. The second is why it's being played on a Friday, when half of the fans will be at work and unable to watch. The final thing that confuses me about this particular game is why people are suddenly referring to it as a ‘bronze medal match’ despite the absence of a bronze medal. The only thing that’s really at stake is that old cliché: pride. But then again, pride can be a powerful thing. And with nothing else to play for, we can hope that both sides will open up and play with the freedom and flair they’ve shown they’re capable of.

Both sides, too, will feel they’ve got something to prove. Wales, of course, will still be hurting after Sam Warburton’s early sending off during their semi-final against France. That red card ignited a wave of outrage directed at referee Alain Rolland, much of it unjustified. Whether or not you think Warburton was unlucky (and for the record, I do), Rolland was acting within the rules of the game as they currently stand. Whatever the rights and wrongs of that issue, there’s no doubt that Warburton’s absence will both strengthen Wales’s desire and weaken their squad. Australia, meanwhile, have so far disappointed in a tournament where they were expected to shine. Much of the blame must be laid at the door of their mercurial fly half Quade Cooper. If he can pull a great performance out of the bag tomorrow, it would bring some sort of redemption, although it won’t make up for the loss to their closest rivals the All Blacks. The match should be fast-paced, with expansive attack matched by heroic defence. Warburton will be a huge loss for Wales, but on form they should still have enough to overcome the misfiring Wallabies.

On to the main event itself, and on paper it looks a pretty one-sided affair. The All Blacks have lived up to their favourites tag with some great performances, showing not just their characteristic skill and directness but an impressive physical presence. France, on the other hand, may be the least deserving finalists in a long time. Well, since England in 2007 anyway. They only scraped through the pool stages thanks to Tonga’s defeat against Canada. England’s implosion eased their passage through the quarter-finals, while that red card certainly helped their chances against Wales. Even so, had more of those Welsh kicks found their target Les Bleus would be facing a different southern hemisphere side this weekend. But then again, this is the French we’re talking about. It’s been said they always have one great performance in them at every World Cup, and we certainly haven’t seen it yet. Personally, I think this kind of turnaround is beyond even France. Even without Dan Carter, New Zealand look set to repeat their triumph of 1987 and maintain their winning record on home soil.

So there are my predictions for the final weekend of Rugby World Cup 2011. We’ll find out soon enough if I have any more success than in the past. This tournament has certainly thrown up plenty of questions, many of which won’t be resolved for some time. By Monday morning, though, we will at least know who’ll have the bragging rights in the rugby world for the next four years.