Rugby World Cup Final Weekend Preview

After six weeks, 46 matches and what feels like hundreds of stupidly early mornings, the Rugby World Cup final is almost here. I say almost, because before we reach that point there’s the third-place play-off to turn our attention to. The quality of the rugby may have been up and down, but the tournament certainly hasn’t been short of drama. And this weekend should be no different.

First, let’s consider tomorrow’s third-place play-off. There are a couple of things that mystify me about this fixture. The first is, to be honest, why we bother having one in the first place. It seems a bit illogical for club sides to be deprived of their best players for an extra week, and for those players to put their bodies at risk, for what’s essentially a pretty meaningless game. The second is why it's being played on a Friday, when half of the fans will be at work and unable to watch. The final thing that confuses me about this particular game is why people are suddenly referring to it as a ‘bronze medal match’ despite the absence of a bronze medal. The only thing that’s really at stake is that old cliché: pride. But then again, pride can be a powerful thing. And with nothing else to play for, we can hope that both sides will open up and play with the freedom and flair they’ve shown they’re capable of.

Both sides, too, will feel they’ve got something to prove. Wales, of course, will still be hurting after Sam Warburton’s early sending off during their semi-final against France. That red card ignited a wave of outrage directed at referee Alain Rolland, much of it unjustified. Whether or not you think Warburton was unlucky (and for the record, I do), Rolland was acting within the rules of the game as they currently stand. Whatever the rights and wrongs of that issue, there’s no doubt that Warburton’s absence will both strengthen Wales’s desire and weaken their squad. Australia, meanwhile, have so far disappointed in a tournament where they were expected to shine. Much of the blame must be laid at the door of their mercurial fly half Quade Cooper. If he can pull a great performance out of the bag tomorrow, it would bring some sort of redemption, although it won’t make up for the loss to their closest rivals the All Blacks. The match should be fast-paced, with expansive attack matched by heroic defence. Warburton will be a huge loss for Wales, but on form they should still have enough to overcome the misfiring Wallabies.

On to the main event itself, and on paper it looks a pretty one-sided affair. The All Blacks have lived up to their favourites tag with some great performances, showing not just their characteristic skill and directness but an impressive physical presence. France, on the other hand, may be the least deserving finalists in a long time. Well, since England in 2007 anyway. They only scraped through the pool stages thanks to Tonga’s defeat against Canada. England’s implosion eased their passage through the quarter-finals, while that red card certainly helped their chances against Wales. Even so, had more of those Welsh kicks found their target Les Bleus would be facing a different southern hemisphere side this weekend. But then again, this is the French we’re talking about. It’s been said they always have one great performance in them at every World Cup, and we certainly haven’t seen it yet. Personally, I think this kind of turnaround is beyond even France. Even without Dan Carter, New Zealand look set to repeat their triumph of 1987 and maintain their winning record on home soil.

So there are my predictions for the final weekend of Rugby World Cup 2011. We’ll find out soon enough if I have any more success than in the past. This tournament has certainly thrown up plenty of questions, many of which won’t be resolved for some time. By Monday morning, though, we will at least know who’ll have the bragging rights in the rugby world for the next four years.

Rugby World Cup Semi-Finals Preview

So, the tournament marches on. And unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last week, you’ll be aware that, contrary to most people’s predictions (including mine), England aren’t in it. But Wales are still flying the Home Nations flag, and tomorrow they’ll have a chance to reach their first ever World Cup final. I’ll admit I was wrong in three out of my four predictions, but that’s part of what makes rugby so exciting. And hey, you can’t win them all.

First things first – painful as it might be, let’s start with England. Their quarter-final display against France was disappointing at best, shambolic at worst. Even the most blinkered England fan would probably admit they never looked like matching a rejuvenated French outfit. Les Bleus have taken a lot of criticism for their performance in the pool stages, much of it well-deserved. But if there’s anything likely to unite a French side, it’s the prospect of facing England. They pulled themselves together while England fell spectacularly to pieces. The inquest’s already well underway, with Martin Johnson’s job under serious threat. Meanwhile, all France’s previous problems will be forgotten if they can string a couple of good performances together.

The other northern hemisphere clash may have been broadcast at silly o’clock, but it was well worth getting up for. Ireland defence coach Les Kiss predicted a “ding-dong battle”, and he wasn’t wrong. It was a big physical encounter, but unlike the England game, it was also fast-paced and expansive. It was a real clash of rugby cultures, with a young Welsh side taking on an Ireland team full of seasoned operators. Along with the majority, I thought that Ireland’s experience would triumph over Wales’s exuberance. In this case, I’m happy to have been proved wrong. Heroic defence combined with incisive attack saw the Welsh through to their first semi-final since 1987. They’ll face the French on Saturday, and hopes will be high that they can go one better.

Now for a quick brain-teaser: how do you win a rugby match with only 24% possession? No, I don’t know either, but apparently Australia do. Despite looking second-best for much of the game, they somehow edged a tight contest. This is all the more remarkable when you consider that Australia’s backs largely failed to fire. Quade Cooper has a lot to answer for in that respect. Dubbed New Zealand’s Public Enemy Number One, he probably didn’t have many fans in Australia either by the end of the game. How he stayed on the pitch for 80 minutes baffles me. And yet Australia are through, and that’s thanks in large part to the efforts of the talismanic David Pocock. Yes, some of the open side’s burgling at the breakdown may have been distinctly suspect. But let’s not pretend every other back row player isn’t trying to do the same. Knowing how far you can push the boundaries is a big part of rugby, and Pocock and Australia just judged it better.

There was result I managed to get right, but I don’t think many seriously expected Argentina to upset the hosts. I was impressed with the challenge they presented though, especially given the absence of the hugely influential Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe. The final scoreline makes it look like a comfortable victory, but the All Blacks had to work hard for it. And they didn’t come through unscathed. After the much-publicised demise of Dan Carter, New Zealand found themselves short of another fly-half when Colin Slade limped off with a groin injury. These things can sometimes be a blessing in disguise, though, and Slade’s withdrawal provided an opportunity for Aaron Cruden to step in and make his mark. He took it with aplomb, marshalling his backs and controlling the game with a calmness that belied his inexperience.  More serious is Richie McCaw’s nagging foot injury, since the All Blacks look dangerously short of back row cover. With David Pocock in great form, McCaw will have to be at his sharpest when the two teams meet on Sunday.

So, given my (ahem) sparkling form so far, I’ll have a stab at predicting the results of the semi-finals. I’ll go with Wales to beat France, because the Welsh have looked more impressive with every game whereas France’s notorious inconsistency still plagues them. True, they overcame England to get here, but that says more about how poor England were than anything else. Having said that, they might produce the performance of the tournament – you really never know. In the clash of the southern hemisphere giants, I’d expect New Zealand to have too much for an Australian side that’s disappointed so far. A lot will depend on McCaw’s fitness – we all saw what happened when Springbok Heinrich Brussow had to go off last weekend. But unless the Wallabies can quickly rediscover their Tri-Nations form, I expect the hosts to make it to their second final.

As ever, of course, only time and 160 minutes of hard rugby will tell who makes it through. I’ll be watching all the action, and I hope you will too. And we can all breathe a collective sigh of relief that, just for a change, both of the matches are on at a sensible time.

Rugby World Cup Quarter-Finals Preview

Whatever else they may have been, the pool stages of Rugby World Cup 2011 certainly haven’t been dull. With the competition about to enter its knockout phase, it’s an appropriate moment to look back at what we’ve enjoyed, and indeed endured, so far, and to consider what might be coming next.

Let’s kick off (yes I went there) with the pool stages. First of all, I’d like to say how refreshing it’s been to see some genuine upsets in this tournament. One oft-repeated criticism of rugby is that, in the vast majority of cases, results go according to form, so that the sport continues to be dominated by the same small group of superpowers to the exclusion of everyone else. And looking at the list of quarter-finalists this year, you might think that wasn’t too far wrong. But there’s plenty of evidence that the so-called “second tier” nations are often more than capable of competing with the big boys. The final few days of pool matches saw South Africa pushed all the way by Samoa, before a determined Tongan side overcome a woeful French outfit on Saturday. The old elite may still be in charge for now, but there’s plenty of evidence that the rest of the world is catching up fast.

Which brings me to perhaps the most controversial element of this competition: the scheduling. Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu’s ill-judged rant aside, many will feel that the smaller nations have a legitimate gripe against a system that’s landed many of them with a three-day turnaround while their bigger opponents get a week off to recover. But on the other hand, I’ve yet to hear anyone come up with a convincing alternative. Giving everyone a week off would mean the tournament would drag on interminably, and no-one wants that. In the absence of an agreed-on solution, this is a debate that looks set to run and run.

But enough about what’s already happened – let’s look ahead to this weekend’s action. The quarter-finals get underway with a clash of two in-form teams as Ireland take on Wales. This is a tough one to call. Wales looked strong coming into the tournament and have built on that promise with some impressive displays. They’re a youthful team but one that’s playing with impressive maturity, as personified by their outstanding captain Sam Warburton. Ireland, meanwhile, lost all four of their warm-up games before coming from nowhere to stun Australia 15-6. Since then they haven’t looked back, and a comprehensive 36-6 win over Italy last time out showed just how far they’ve come. The battle of the back rows is going to be key, with Dan Lydiate, Warburton and Toby Faletau squaring up to Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip. At fly half it’s youth versus experience, with the impressive Rhys Priestland lining up against seasoned campaigner Ronan O’Gara. It has all the makings of a Celtic classic. I’m going with Ireland to win, just because experience often tells in knockout rugby. But it’ll be close, and expect plenty of fireworks along the way.

At the other end of the spectrum, we find two teams that have really struggled for form. On the one hand, England’s discipline has caused them plenty of problems both on and off the field. On the other, France appear to have imploded in spectacular fashion, epitomised by their 19-14 defeat to Tonga last week. But then the French team’s weakness can also be their greatest strength: unpredictability. Never underestimate the potential of the French to unite around their common hatred of the English. And if everything finally starts to flow for Les Bleus, then it could spell trouble for Martin Johnson’s men. But then again, England have World Cup history on their side. In knockout matches, they’re generally pretty good at beating the French. They’ve also shown in recent weeks that, it nothing else, they know how to grind out a result. Discipline will be an important issue, as will goal-kicking (whoever gets handed the responsibility). England to win for me – just don’t expect it to be pretty.

Sunday sees the southern hemisphere take centre stage. First up it’s Australia against South Africa, a match-up that before the tournament would have had us drooling in anticipation (and probably confidently predicting a win for the Wallabies). How things change. For me, Australia’s performance so far has been one of the biggest disappointments of this competition. A young Wallabies side has been made to look naïve and inexperienced at times, notably against Ireland where they contributed significantly to their own downfall. True, they haven’t been helped by injuries, but then what team hasn’t had that problem? At the moment Australia look like a team searching for direction, and if they want to play the kind of creative, attacking rugby we saw in the Tri-Nations then they need to find it soon. Meanwhile, the Springboks came through the Group of Death fairly unscathed despite being run close by both Wales and Samoa. The major exception to this, of course, is the loss of the influential Frans Steyn. The Springboks looked vulnerable against both Wales and Samoa, and in both cases it was their defence that helped them hold on for the win. There’s a good reason why they’ve conceded the fewest points of any team ever in the pool stages. And it’s this that I think will see them through to the semi-finals, barring a return to pre-tournament brilliance from the men in gold.

And so we come at last to the hosts themselves. The All Blacks go into Sunday’s game against Argentina still reeling from the loss of playmaker and talisman Dan Carter. Without him, they still have a formidable group of players, and to write them off now would be foolish indeed. But people will look at them now and think that they look just a little bit more beatable. And that must be what the Pumas are pinning their hopes on. Contepomi and co have done well to make it this far after their own star fly half Juan Martin Hernandez was ruled out of the tournament through injury. They’ll certainly give the All Blacks a physical battle, but it seems unlikely they’ll be able to compete in the backs. New Zealand have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to powerful, skilful centres and wingers, not to mention having the luxury of choosing between Mills Muliaina and Israel Dagg at full back. Argentina will put in a valiant performance, but I expect it to be pretty comfortable for the hosts.

But of course, only the next 48 hours will show who’s called it right and wrong this time around. There’s been plenty of tension, nerves, frustration and joy so far, and there’s plenty more to come yet. I’ll be watching it all, and I hope you’ll join me. Time to set the alarm.